---
title: "Monday's Market Open"
url: "https://www.readplaza.com/articles/yfO7m3B3TPm"
type: "article"
publisher: "VHLA"
published: "2026-09-15T04:16:29+00:00"
updated: "2026-09-18T18:20:26.180543+00:00"
reading_time_minutes: 4
tags: ["AI"]
---

# Monday's Market Open
_Are we back, or is it over?_

Dear Winner,

 Hell of a week to be alive. The three guys who spent $100B building AI spent the weekend begging everyone to slow down. Amodei wrote the essay, Altman and Musk co-signed… 

Markets stuffed the sector into a locker while Trump told them STFU and keep building.

Meanwhile a drone took out Saudi Arabia's only pipeline that skips Hormuz, the 10-year kissed 5% for the first time since 2023, and the Fed hikes in about 48 hours. 

 Strap the fuck in. 

Dario POV

THE TAPE

Where We're AtAs of Monday, Sept 14 • 11:45 PM EST • Close

INDICIESLASTCHGDAYS&P 5007,619.98-37.00-0.48%Nasdaq26,186.41-147.49-0.56%Dow52,421.20-152.00-0.29%TSX35,701.06+3.57+0.01%US TREASURYSYIELDCHGBPS10Y4.96%-2 bp-230Y5.33%-3 bp-3CRUDELASTCHGDAYWTI$102.81+$1.42+1.40%Brent$107.00+$2.10+2.00%METALSLASTCHGDAYGold$4,350.90-$58.00-1.32%Silver$63.22-$1.38-2.14%Copper (COMEX)$6.28-$0.18-2.86%CROSS-ASSETLASTCHGDAYBitcoin$77,837+$270+0.35%DXY99.45+0.36+0.36%Green = up, red = down. Saudi Arabia's Hormuz-bypass pipeline is shut, the 10Y touched 5% for the first time since 2023, and the AI bosses asked everyone to slow down. Fed decision Wednesday, BoE Thursday, BoJ Friday, quad witching to close it out.

News

The RecapMiddle East - CENTCOM confirmed US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, Roughly 6–8 million barrels a day still crawl through the Strait against 22–24 million pre-war. 

Fed - Warsh went full hawk at Jackson Hole: inflation isn't easing, 2% is still the target, conditions aren't tight. Sept hike odds ~57%. 2-year at 4.34%, 10-year at 4.76% — highest since January 2025. 

Venezuela - Trump announced "THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY," claiming majority US control of 65 billion barrels of proven Venezuelan reserves at no cost to the taxpayer, with the crude earmarked for the SPR. Details are thin. Hold the applause until somebody publishes a contract. 

Canada - TSX fell 328 points to 36,226, a one-week low, still on track for a fifth straight monthly gain with materials up over 25% on the month. Shopify -4.2% to $203.61. Loonie firmed to 72.16 cents. Bank of Canada decides Wednesday and is widely expected to sit at 2.25%. 

AI - Nvidia took a $3.5B stake in MediaTek and the stock didn't flinch. Same day, FSB chair Andrew Bailey warned the G20 that frontier AI models, equity-market leverage and AI valuations are a financial stability risk. Noted, Andrew. 

Vol - VIX closed Friday at 14.13, its 2026 low, heading into the heaviest data week of the quarter. September is also historically the worst month of the year for stocks. Do with that what you will. 

News

THE WEEK AHEAD BOJ, CPI, FOMC, WTI, Quad Wittching and my portfolio

Tuesday - August retail sales at 8:30 AM ET, plus Empire State manufacturing. First read on whether the consumer flinched at $100 oil. Trip.com reports. 

Wednesday - The main event. FOMC decision at 2:00 PM ET, dot plot attached, Warsh at 2:30. A 25 bp hike is 87% priced, so the statement and dots ARE the trade, not the hike. $LEN reports after the close with mortgages at 6.8%, and $PLAY tells us if anyone still has fun money. 

Thursday - Housing starts, permits, Philly Fed, and jobless claims all at 8:30. Bank of England decides. Lennar's call at 11:00 AM is where homebuilders live or die this week. 

Friday - Bank of Japan, and a hike is expected with the yen already at a seven-month high. Also quad witching, so ignore the volume prints and the 3:50 PM fireworks. 

 Central banks on three continents in three days, all leaning the same hawkish way, with a quad witching. Bumbaclart.

Alpha

Follow The Grease Fast food is bleeding in the big ‘26. $MCD is down 9% YTD. $WEN posted a 12.5% traffic drop, and pulled its 2026 outlook entirely. Even $QSR.TO/QSR, isn’t safe. 

Meanwhile restaurant inflation is 2x grocery, soybeans are up about 25% YTD and canola bids sit a quarter above last year. Every chain on earth is hunting for costs to cut. 

 When operators bleed, we don't try to catch a falling knife, we find whoever sells the tourniquet., and that’s why we’re watching. $BOIL.TO/BEOLF. 

Beyond Oil. They make an FDA and Health Canada filter powder to get more milage out of frying oil by taking out harmful compounds throughout cycling. 

They posted record Q2 revenue of $1.4M, up 28%, and a second top-tier US supermarket signed a deal after quarter end. Not fucking bad…. 

Basically, we see a real product, aimed at a sector that suddenly counts every nickel… 

 But we’re just guys who like the markets. 

VHLA does not own the tickers named and may buy or sell at any time. No relationship, paid or otherwise, with Beyond Oil.

Thank You

That’s all Folks Hey, thank you for checking out Monday Market Open. I hope you enjoyed it, learned something new, and are feeling ready to attack the week. Keep an eye on your inbox for more Alpha coming your way this week. 

 Cheers, 

 SHOW SOME LOVE